scaling limits

The Race Toward AGI: Are We Close to Human-Level Intelligence?

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There is no consensus: credible experts place plausible AGI anywhere from “late 2020s” to “decades away,” and forecasts have shortened but remain highly uncertain; the prudent view is to prepare for faster-than-expected progress while planning for the possibility of a long grind.​ What experts actually predict Why forecasts are noisy Technical bottlenecks to watch Hard … Read more

The Race for Superintelligence: How Close Are We?

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There’s no consensus: credible forecasts range from a few years to several decades, with expert surveys clustering around 2040–2060 for AGI and entrepreneurs predicting much sooner; what is clear is that timelines have compressed and automated AI R&D is emerging, raising urgency for safety and governance now.​ Timelines in contention Why timelines have compressed What … Read more